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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group I · Match 42

FrancevsIraq

3 – 0Full time

Mon 22 Jun, 21:00 UTC your time · Mon 22 Jun, 17:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, United States

Final result

full time
France3 – 0Iraq

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
France
  • Kylian Mbappé2 goals
  • Ousmane Dembélégoal
Iraq

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
57.4% France26.6% draw16.1% Iraq

Expected goals 1.52 – 0.67

Rating

What's driving this: France hold a decisive rating edge: +352 Elo over Iraq.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
France57.4%draw26.6%Iraq16.1%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    France 2095 · Iraq 1742.6
    France +352 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    France #1 · Iraq #57
  • Recent form
    France 5W-1D-0L · Iraq 4W-2D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    16.6%
  • 2-0
    12.9%
  • 1-1
    11.8%
  • 0-0
    11.5%
  • 2-1
    8.7%
  • 0-1
    7.1%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
France
WWDWWW
Iraq
WWDDWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 53%Possession47%
  • 12Shots2
  • 4On target0
  • 3Corners1
  • 3Fouls2
  • 1Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.