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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group I · Match 41

NorwayvsSenegal

3 – 2Full time

Tue 23 Jun, 00:00 UTC your time · Mon 22 Jun, 20:00 GMT-4 at the venue

MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, United States

Final result

full time
Norway3 – 2Senegal

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Norway
  • Erling Haaland2 goals
  • Marcus Holmgren Pedersengoal
Senegal
  • Ismaïla Sarr2 goals

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
33.3% Norway28.3% draw38.5% Senegal

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.27

Rating

What's driving this: Senegal have a slight rating edge (+30 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Norway33.3%draw28.3%Senegal38.5%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Norway 1872.2 · Senegal 1902.5
    Senegal +30 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    Norway #31 · Senegal #14
  • Recent form
    Norway 6W-0D-0L · Senegal 4W-1D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.4%
  • 0-1
    10.8%
  • 1-0
    9.9%
  • 0-0
    9.3%
  • 1-2
    8.2%
  • 2-1
    7.5%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Norway
WWWWWW
Senegal
LWWWWD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 32%Possession68%
  • 5Shots10
  • 3On target3
  • 1Corners3
  • 7Fouls4
  • 0Offsides2
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Norway0 draw1 Senegal

1 meetings · goals 1–2

  • 2006-03-01friendly1–2Senegal