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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group G · Match 40

New ZealandvsEgypt

1 – 3Full time

Mon 22 Jun, 01:00 UTC your time · Sun 21 Jun, 18:00 GMT-7 at the venue

BC Place, Vancouver, Canada

Final result

full time
New Zealand1 – 3Egypt

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
New Zealand
  • Finn Surmangoal
Egypt
  • Mohamed Salahgoal
  • Mostafa Zikogoal
  • Trezeguetgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
32.2% New Zealand29.9% draw38.0% Egypt

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.16

Rating

What's driving this: Egypt have a moderate rating edge (+76 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
New Zealand32.2%draw29.9%Egypt38.0%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    New Zealand 1721.8 · Egypt 1798.2
    Egypt +76 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    New Zealand #85 · Egypt #29
  • Recent form
    New Zealand 6W-0D-0L · Egypt 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.8%
  • 0-1
    12.4%
  • 0-0
    11.4%
  • 1-0
    11.1%
  • 1-2
    7.8%
  • 0-2
    7.4%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
New Zealand
WWWWWW
Egypt
DLWWDW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 46%Possession54%
  • 4Shots13
  • 2On target6
  • 3Corners2
  • 5Fouls6
  • 1Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 New Zealand1 draw2 Egypt

3 meetings · goals 1–3

  • 2024-03-22friendly0–1Egypt
  • 1999-07-15friendly0–1Egypt
  • 1999-07-10friendly1–1draw