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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group H · Match 38

SpainvsSaudi Arabia

4 – 0Full time

Sun 21 Jun, 16:00 UTC your time · Sun 21 Jun, 12:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, United States

Final result

full time
Spain4 – 0Saudi Arabia

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Spain
  • Mikel Oyarzabal2 goals
  • Lamine Yamalgoal
  • Hassan Al TambaktiOG
Saudi Arabia

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
66.1% Spain22.5% draw11.4% Saudi Arabia

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.60

Rating

What's driving this: Spain hold a decisive rating edge: +475 Elo over Saudi Arabia.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Spain66.1%draw22.5%Saudi Arabia11.4%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Spain 2156.1 · Saudi Arabia 1681.2
    Spain +475 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Spain #2 · Saudi Arabia #61
  • Recent form
    Spain 5W-1D-0L · Saudi Arabia 2W-2D-2L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    16.0%
  • 2-0
    14.7%
  • 1-1
    10.1%
  • 0-0
    9.4%
  • 3-0
    8.8%
  • 2-1
    8.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Spain
DWWWWW
Saudi Arabia
DWLDLW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 63%Possession37%
  • 5Shots1
  • 3On target1
  • 2Corners0
  • 7Fouls1
  • 2Offsides1
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
3 Spain0 draw0 Saudi Arabia

3 meetings · goals 9–2

  • 2012-09-07friendly5–0Spain
  • 2010-05-29friendly3–2Spain
  • 2006-06-23wc finals1–0Spain