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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group H · Match 37

UruguayvsCape Verde

2 – 2Full time

Sun 21 Jun, 22:00 UTC your time · Sun 21 Jun, 18:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, United States

Final result

full time
Uruguay2 – 2Cape Verde

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Uruguay
  • Agustín Canobbiogoal
  • Maxi Araújogoal
Cape Verde
  • Hélio Varelagoal
  • Kevin Pinagoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
53.9% Uruguay29.3% draw16.9% Cape Verde

Expected goals 1.33 – 0.62

Rating

What's driving this: Uruguay hold a decisive rating edge: +313 Elo over Cape Verde.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Uruguay53.9%draw29.3%Cape Verde16.9%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Uruguay 1946.5 · Cape Verde 1633.9
    Uruguay +313 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Uruguay #17 · Cape Verde #69
  • Recent form
    Uruguay 2W-2D-2L · Cape Verde 5W-1D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    18.6%
  • 0-0
    14.6%
  • 2-0
    12.7%
  • 1-1
    12.1%
  • 0-1
    8.4%
  • 2-1
    7.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Uruguay
DWWLDL
Cape Verde
WDWWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 65%Possession35%
  • 6Shots10
  • 0On target3
  • 7Corners3
  • 5Fouls2
  • 1Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.