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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group F · Match 36

TunisiavsJapan

0 – 4Full time

Sun 21 Jun, 04:00 UTC your time · Sat 20 Jun, 22:00 GMT-6 at the venue

Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe, Mexico

Final result

full time
Tunisia0 – 4Japan

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Tunisia

none

Japan
  • Ayase Ueda2 goals
  • Daichi Kamadagoal
  • Junya Itogoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
21.5% Tunisia29.2% draw49.3% Japan

Expected goals 0.78 – 1.33

Rating

What's driving this: Japan hold a decisive rating edge: +221 Elo over Tunisia.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Tunisia21.5%draw29.2%Japan49.3%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Tunisia 1728.6 · Japan 1949.2
    Japan +221 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Tunisia #44 · Japan #18
  • Recent form
    Tunisia 3W-2D-1L · Japan 4W-1D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-1
    15.8%
  • 1-1
    13.0%
  • 0-0
    12.6%
  • 0-2
    10.7%
  • 1-0
    9.1%
  • 1-2
    8.3%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Tunisia
DDLWWW
Japan
WLDWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 41%Possession59%
  • 1Shots6
  • 0On target2
  • 2Corners3
  • 3Fouls7
  • 1Offsides1
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
1 Tunisia0 draw4 Japan

5 meetings · goals 3–6

  • 2022-06-14minor tournament3–0Tunisia
  • 2015-03-27minor tournament0–2Japan
  • 2003-10-08friendly0–1Japan
  • 2002-06-14wc finals0–2Japan
  • 1996-10-13friendly0–1Japan