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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group F · Match 35

NetherlandsvsSweden

5 – 1Full time

Sat 20 Jun, 17:00 UTC your time · Sat 20 Jun, 12:00 GMT-5 at the venue

NRG Stadium, Houston, United States

Final result

full time
Netherlands5 – 1Sweden

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Netherlands
  • Brian Brobbey2 goals
  • Cody Gakpo2 goals
  • Crysencio Summervillegoal
Sweden
  • Anthony Elangagoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
55.6% Netherlands23.4% draw21.1% Sweden

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.05

Rating

What's driving this: Netherlands hold a decisive rating edge: +241 Elo over Sweden.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Netherlands55.6%draw23.4%Sweden21.1%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Netherlands 1986.5 · Sweden 1745.4
    Netherlands +241 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Netherlands #7 · Sweden #38
  • Recent form
    Netherlands 4W-2D-0L · Sweden 2W-1D-3L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    11.1%
  • 2-1
    9.9%
  • 1-0
    9.8%
  • 2-0
    9.4%
  • 3-1
    6.1%
  • 0-0
    5.9%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Netherlands
WDWWWD
Sweden
WWDLLL

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 43%Possession57%
  • 5Shots7
  • 3On target4
  • 1Corners3
  • 4Fouls8
  • 2Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
11 Netherlands6 draw8 Sweden

25 meetings · goals 47–48

  • 2017-10-10wc qualifier2–0Netherlands
  • 2016-09-06wc qualifier1–1draw
  • 2011-10-11continental qualifier2–3Sweden
  • 2010-10-12continental qualifier4–1Netherlands
  • 2008-11-19friendly3–1Netherlands