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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group E · Match 34

EcuadorvsCuraçao

0 – 0Full time

Sun 21 Jun, 00:00 UTC your time · Sat 20 Jun, 19:00 GMT-5 at the venue

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, United States

Final result

full time
Ecuador0 – 0Curaçao

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
55.2% Ecuador27.6% draw17.2% Curaçao

Expected goals 1.44 – 0.68

Rating

What's driving this: Ecuador hold a decisive rating edge: +352 Elo over Curaçao.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Ecuador55.2%draw27.6%Curaçao17.2%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Ecuador 1918.7 · Curaçao 1566.8
    Ecuador +352 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Ecuador #23 · Curaçao #82
  • Recent form
    Ecuador 2W-4D-0L · Curaçao 3W-3D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    16.9%
  • 2-0
    12.5%
  • 0-0
    12.3%
  • 1-1
    12.1%
  • 2-1
    8.5%
  • 0-1
    7.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Ecuador
WDDDDW
Curaçao
DWDWWD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 75%Possession25%
  • 19Shots5
  • 9On target3
  • 8Corners0
  • 1Fouls5
  • 0Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards4
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.