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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group D · Match 31

TurkeyvsParaguay

0 – 1Full time

Sat 20 Jun, 03:00 UTC your time · Fri 19 Jun, 20:00 GMT-7 at the venue

Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, United States

Final result

full time
Turkey0 – 1Paraguay

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Turkey

none

Paraguay
  • Matías Galarzagoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
37.8% Turkey29.9% draw32.3% Paraguay

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.04

Rating

What's driving this: Turkey have a slight rating edge (+44 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Turkey37.8%draw29.9%Paraguay32.3%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Turkey 1886.3 · Paraguay 1842.8
    Turkey +44 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    Turkey #22 · Paraguay #40
  • Recent form
    Turkey 5W-1D-0L · Paraguay 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.8%
  • 1-0
    12.4%
  • 0-0
    11.5%
  • 0-1
    11.2%
  • 2-1
    7.7%
  • 2-0
    7.4%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Turkey
WWDWWW
Paraguay
WDLWDW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 80%Possession20%
  • 20Shots3
  • 4On target0
  • 7Corners0
  • 10Fouls4
  • 1Offsides1
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.