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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group C · Match 30

ScotlandvsMorocco

0 – 1Full time

Fri 19 Jun, 22:00 UTC your time · Fri 19 Jun, 18:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, United States

Final result

full time
Scotland0 – 1Morocco

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Scotland

none

Morocco
  • Ismael Saibarigoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
21.8% Scotland30.7% draw47.6% Morocco

Expected goals 0.73 – 1.23

Rating

What's driving this: Morocco hold a decisive rating edge: +176 Elo over Scotland.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Scotland21.8%draw30.7%Morocco47.6%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Scotland 1772.6 · Morocco 1948.7
    Morocco +176 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Scotland #43 · Morocco #8
  • Recent form
    Scotland 4W-1D-1L · Morocco 4W-2D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-1
    16.9%
  • 0-0
    14.4%
  • 1-1
    13.1%
  • 0-2
    10.6%
  • 1-0
    9.9%
  • 1-2
    7.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Scotland
WLWWWD
Morocco
WDWWWD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 44%Possession56%
  • 4Shots7
  • 0On target1
  • 2Corners2
  • 6Fouls3
  • 0Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Scotland0 draw1 Morocco

1 meetings · goals 0–3

  • 1998-06-23wc finals0–3Morocco