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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group C · Match 29

BrazilvsHaiti

3 – 0Full time

Sat 20 Jun, 00:30 UTC your time · Fri 19 Jun, 20:30 GMT-4 at the venue

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, United States

Final result

full time
Brazil3 – 0Haiti

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Brazil
  • Matheus Cunha2 goals
  • Vinícius Júniorgoal
Haiti

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
68.6% Brazil18.7% draw12.7% Haiti

Expected goals 2.27 – 0.88

Rating

What's driving this: Brazil hold a decisive rating edge: +392 Elo over Haiti.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Brazil68.6%draw18.7%Haiti12.7%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Brazil 2046.2 · Haiti 1654.5
    Brazil +392 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Brazil #6 · Haiti #83
  • Recent form
    Brazil 3W-1D-2L · Haiti 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 2-0
    11.1%
  • 2-1
    9.7%
  • 1-0
    9.5%
  • 1-1
    8.8%
  • 3-0
    8.4%
  • 3-1
    7.3%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Brazil
LWWDLW
Haiti
WWLWDD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 51%Possession49%
  • 2Shots7
  • 0On target3
  • 0Corners3
  • 7Fouls10
  • 3Offsides2
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
3 Brazil0 draw0 Haiti

3 meetings · goals 17–1

  • 2016-06-08continental finals7–1Brazil
  • 2004-08-18friendly6–0Brazil
  • 1974-04-21friendly4–0Brazil