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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group A · Match 28

MexicovsSouth Korea

1 – 0Full time

Fri 19 Jun, 01:00 UTC your time · Thu 18 Jun, 19:00 GMT-6 at the venue

Estadio Akron, Zapopan, Mexico

Final result

full time
Mexico1 – 0South Korea

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Mexico
  • Luis Romogoal
South Korea

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
52.4% Mexico27.2% draw20.5% South Korea

Expected goals 1.48 – 0.82

Host

What's driving this: Mexico play at home as World Cup hosts.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Mexico52.4%draw27.2%South Korea20.5%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Mexico 1918.1 · South Korea 1871.9
    Mexico +46 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    Mexico #15 · South Korea #25
  • Host advantage
    Mexico playing on home soil
    +0.20 goal rate
  • Altitude
    South Korea concede ~1.6 km in Zapopan
    -0.26 goal rate
  • Recent form
    Mexico 5W-1D-0L · South Korea 3W-3D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    14.4%
  • 1-1
    12.6%
  • 2-0
    11.0%
  • 0-0
    10.4%
  • 2-1
    9.0%
  • 0-1
    7.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Mexico
WWWDWW
South Korea
WWDDDW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 36%Possession64%
  • 5Shots7
  • 3On target2
  • 0Corners2
  • 5Fouls3
  • 1Offsides2
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
8 Mexico3 draw3 South Korea

14 meetings · goals 28–15

  • 2025-09-09friendly2–2draw
  • 2020-11-14friendly3–2Mexico
  • 2018-06-23wc finals2–1Mexico
  • 2014-01-29friendly4–0Mexico
  • 2006-02-15friendly0–1South Korea