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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group B · Match 27

CanadavsQatar

6 – 0Full time

Thu 18 Jun, 22:00 UTC your time · Thu 18 Jun, 15:00 GMT-7 at the venue

BC Place, Vancouver, Canada

Final result

full time
Canada6 – 0Qatar

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Canada
  • Jonathan David3 goals
  • Cyle Laringoal
  • Nathan Salibagoal
  • Mohamed Al MannaiOG
Qatar

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
62.8% Canada20.5% draw16.7% Qatar

Expected goals 2.15 – 1.02

Rating

What's driving this: Canada hold a decisive rating edge: +227 Elo over Qatar.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Canada62.8%draw20.5%Qatar16.7%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Canada 1848.6 · Qatar 1621.6
    Canada +227 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Canada #30 · Qatar #55
  • Host advantage
    Canada playing on home soil
    +0.20 goal rate
  • Recent form
    Canada 3W-2D-1L · Qatar 3W-1D-2L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 2-1
    9.9%
  • 2-0
    9.7%
  • 1-1
    9.5%
  • 1-0
    8.7%
  • 3-1
    7.1%
  • 3-0
    6.9%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Canada
DWDWWL
Qatar
WDLWLW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 91%Possession9%
  • 18Shots0
  • 2On target0
  • 14Corners0
  • 6Fouls5
  • 0Offsides1
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards1

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
1 Canada0 draw0 Qatar

1 meetings · goals 2–0

  • 2022-09-23friendly2–0Canada