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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group B · Match 26

SwitzerlandvsBosnia and Herzegovina

4 – 1Full time

Thu 18 Jun, 19:00 UTC your time · Thu 18 Jun, 12:00 GMT-7 at the venue

SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, United States

Final result

full time
Switzerland4 – 1Bosnia and Herzegovina

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Switzerland
  • Johan Manzambi2 goals
  • Granit Xhakagoal
  • Rubén Vargasgoal
Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Ermin Mahmicgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
56.3% Switzerland25.1% draw18.7% Bosnia and Herzegovina

Expected goals 1.66 – 0.85

Rating

What's driving this: Switzerland hold a decisive rating edge: +289 Elo over Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Switzerland56.3%draw25.1%Bosnia and Herzegovina18.7%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Switzerland 1916.3 · Bosnia and Herzegovina 1627.8
    Switzerland +289 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Switzerland #19 · Bosnia and Herzegovina #65
  • Recent form
    Switzerland 4W-2D-0L · Bosnia and Herzegovina 1W-4D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    13.2%
  • 1-1
    11.8%
  • 2-0
    11.2%
  • 2-1
    9.5%
  • 0-0
    8.5%
  • 0-1
    6.6%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Switzerland
DWDWWW
Bosnia and Herzegovina
DDDWDL

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 55%Possession45%
  • 9Shots2
  • 6On target2
  • 3Corners1
  • 4Fouls10
  • 1Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards1

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Switzerland0 draw1 Bosnia and Herzegovina

1 meetings · goals 0–2

  • 2016-03-29friendly0–2Bosnia and Herzegovina