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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group A · Match 25

Czech RepublicvsSouth Africa

1 – 1Full time

Thu 18 Jun, 16:00 UTC your time · Thu 18 Jun, 12:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, United States

Final result

full time
Czech Republic1 – 1South Africa

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Czech Republic
  • Michal Sadílekgoal
South Africa
  • Teboho Mokoenagoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
41.1% Czech Republic30.0% draw29.0% South Africa

Expected goals 1.20 – 0.96

Rating

What's driving this: Czech Republic have a moderate rating edge (+123 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Czech Republic41.1%draw30.0%South Africa29.0%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Czech Republic 1760.2 · South Africa 1637.5
    Czech Republic +123 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    Czech Republic #41 · South Africa #60
  • Recent form
    Czech Republic 2W-3D-1L · South Africa 3W-1D-2L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.7%
  • 1-0
    13.4%
  • 0-0
    11.9%
  • 0-1
    10.6%
  • 2-0
    8.3%
  • 2-1
    8.0%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Czech Republic
DDWLDW
South Africa
LWLWWD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 39%Possession61%
  • 9Shots12
  • 2On target4
  • 3Corners2
  • 4Fouls6
  • 1Offsides1
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Czech Republic1 draw0 South Africa

1 meetings · goals 2–2

  • 1997-12-13confederations cup2–2draw