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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group K · Match 24

UzbekistanvsColombia

1 – 3Full time

Thu 18 Jun, 02:00 UTC your time · Wed 17 Jun, 20:00 GMT-6 at the venue

Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico

Final result

full time
Uzbekistan1 – 3Colombia

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Uzbekistan
  • Abbosbek Fayzullayevgoal
Colombia
  • Daniel Muñozgoal
  • Jaminton Campazgoal
  • Luis Díazgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
15.4% Uzbekistan30.5% draw54.2% Colombia

Expected goals 0.53 – 1.26

Rating

What's driving this: Colombia hold a decisive rating edge: +211 Elo over Uzbekistan.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Uzbekistan15.4%draw30.5%Colombia54.2%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Uzbekistan 1775.2 · Colombia 1985.9
    Colombia +211 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Uzbekistan #50 · Colombia #13
  • Altitude
    Uzbekistan concede ~2.2 km in Mexico City
    -0.38 goal rate
  • Recent form
    Uzbekistan 3W-2D-1L · Colombia 2W-3D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-1
    20.6%
  • 0-0
    16.9%
  • 0-2
    13.2%
  • 1-1
    11.5%
  • 1-0
    8.5%
  • 1-2
    7.1%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Uzbekistan
WDDWWL
Colombia
WWDDDL

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 49%Possession51%
  • 7Shots8
  • 2On target2
  • 2Corners2
  • 5Fouls6
  • 0Offsides1
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.