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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group K · Match 23

PortugalvsDR Congo

1 – 1Full time

Wed 17 Jun, 17:00 UTC your time · Wed 17 Jun, 12:00 GMT-5 at the venue

NRG Stadium, Houston, United States

Final result

full time
Portugal1 – 1DR Congo

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Portugal
  • João Nevesgoal
DR Congo
  • Yoane Wissagoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
56.0% Portugal26.2% draw17.8% DR Congo

Expected goals 1.56 – 0.76

Rating

What's driving this: Portugal hold a decisive rating edge: +278 Elo over DR Congo.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Portugal56.0%draw26.2%DR Congo17.8%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Portugal 1989.2 · DR Congo 1711.4
    Portugal +278 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Portugal #5 · DR Congo #46
  • Recent form
    Portugal 4W-1D-1L · DR Congo 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    15.0%
  • 1-1
    12.0%
  • 2-0
    11.9%
  • 0-0
    10.2%
  • 2-1
    9.1%
  • 0-1
    7.1%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Portugal
WLDWWW
DR Congo
WLWDWD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 69%Possession31%
  • 5Shots2
  • 0On target0
  • 4Corners1
  • 6Fouls5
  • 2Offsides1
  • 2Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.