PresairaPresairaWorld Cup 2026
ForecastMatchesGroupsPredictPlayers

An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
  • Groups
  • Predict
  • Players
Group stage · Group L · Match 22

EnglandvsCroatia

4 – 2Full time

Wed 17 Jun, 20:00 UTC your time · Wed 17 Jun, 15:00 GMT-5 at the venue

AT&T Stadium, Arlington, United States

Final result

full time
England4 – 2Croatia

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
England
  • Harry Kane2 goals
  • Jude Bellinghamgoal
  • Marcus Rashfordgoal
Croatia
  • Martin Baturinagoal
  • Petar Musagoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
43.9% England28.9% draw27.2% Croatia

Expected goals 1.30 – 0.96

Rating

What's driving this: England have a moderate rating edge (+94 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
England43.9%draw28.9%Croatia27.2%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    England 2035.8 · Croatia 1942.3
    England +94 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    England #4 · Croatia #11
  • Recent form
    England 6W-0D-0L · Croatia 5W-1D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.4%
  • 1-0
    13.1%
  • 0-0
    10.8%
  • 0-1
    9.6%
  • 2-0
    8.8%
  • 2-1
    8.5%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
England
WWWWWW
Croatia
WWWDWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 55%Possession45%
  • 13Shots6
  • 9On target3
  • 5Corners1
  • 4Fouls7
  • 0Offsides1
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
6 England2 draw3 Croatia

11 meetings · goals 22–13

  • 2021-06-13continental finals1–0England
  • 2018-11-18nations league2–1England
  • 2018-10-12nations league0–0draw
  • 2018-07-11wc finals1–2Croatia
  • 2009-09-09wc qualifier5–1England