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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group L · Match 21

GhanavsPanama

1 – 0Full time

Wed 17 Jun, 23:00 UTC your time · Wed 17 Jun, 19:00 GMT-4 at the venue

BMO Field, Toronto, Canada

Final result

full time
Ghana1 – 0Panama

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Ghana
  • Caleb Yirenkyigoal
Panama

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
27.1% Ghana27.5% draw45.4% Panama

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.42

Rating

What's driving this: Panama hold a decisive rating edge: +189 Elo over Ghana.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Ghana27.1%draw27.5%Panama45.4%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Ghana 1633.1 · Panama 1822.1
    Panama +189 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Ghana #74 · Panama #33
  • Recent form
    Ghana 5W-1D-0L · Panama 3W-3D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.0%
  • 0-1
    11.8%
  • 0-0
    9.0%
  • 1-2
    8.9%
  • 0-2
    8.7%
  • 1-0
    8.5%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Ghana
WWWDWW
Panama
WWDWDD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 41%Possession59%
  • 7Shots8
  • 2On target3
  • 2Corners2
  • 6Fouls5
  • 1Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.