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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group J · Match 20

AustriavsJordan

3 – 1Full time

Wed 17 Jun, 04:00 UTC your time · Tue 16 Jun, 21:00 GMT-7 at the venue

Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, United States

Final result

full time
Austria3 – 1Jordan

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Austria
  • Marko Arnautovicgoal
  • Romano Schmidgoal
  • Yazan Abu Al-ArabOG
Jordan
  • Ali Iyad Olwangoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
44.0% Austria27.7% draw28.3% Jordan

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.06

Rating

What's driving this: Austria have a moderate rating edge (+122 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Austria44.0%draw27.7%Jordan28.3%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Austria 1842.2 · Jordan 1720.3
    Austria +122 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    Austria #24 · Jordan #63
  • Recent form
    Austria 4W-1D-1L · Jordan 2W-3D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.1%
  • 1-0
    11.7%
  • 0-0
    9.1%
  • 0-1
    8.8%
  • 2-1
    8.8%
  • 2-0
    8.3%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Austria
DWLWWW
Jordan
LWDWDD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 62%Possession38%
  • 5Shots3
  • 3On target1
  • 3Corners0
  • 5Fouls4
  • 1Offsides1
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.