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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group J · Match 19

ArgentinavsAlgeria

3 – 0Full time

Wed 17 Jun, 01:00 UTC your time · Tue 16 Jun, 20:00 GMT-5 at the venue

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, United States

Final result

full time
Argentina3 – 0Algeria

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Argentina
  • Lionel Messi3 goals
Algeria

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
57.2% Argentina24.8% draw18.0% Algeria

Expected goals 1.68 – 0.83

Rating

What's driving this: Argentina hold a decisive rating edge: +309 Elo over Algeria.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Argentina57.2%draw24.8%Algeria18.0%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Argentina 2144.7 · Algeria 1836.2
    Argentina +309 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Argentina #3 · Algeria #28
  • Recent form
    Argentina 4W-1D-1L · Algeria 5W-0D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    13.4%
  • 1-1
    11.7%
  • 2-0
    11.5%
  • 2-1
    9.5%
  • 0-0
    8.5%
  • 0-1
    6.4%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Argentina
LWDWWW
Algeria
LWWWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 40%Possession60%
  • 6Shots3
  • 5On target0
  • 2Corners0
  • 6Fouls5
  • 0Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
1 Argentina0 draw0 Algeria

1 meetings · goals 4–3

  • 2007-06-05friendly4–3Argentina