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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group I · Match 18

IraqvsNorway

1 – 4Full time

Tue 16 Jun, 22:00 UTC your time · Tue 16 Jun, 18:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, United States

Final result

full time
Iraq1 – 4Norway

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Iraq
  • Ayman Husseingoal
Norway
  • Erling Haaland2 goals
  • Leo Østigardgoal
  • Ayman HusseinOG

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
26.4% Iraq29.4% draw44.2% Norway

Expected goals 0.92 – 1.27

Rating

What's driving this: Norway have a moderate rating edge (+130 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Iraq26.4%draw29.4%Norway44.2%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Iraq 1742.6 · Norway 1872.2
    Norway +130 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    Iraq #57 · Norway #31
  • Recent form
    Iraq 4W-2D-0L · Norway 6W-0D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-1
    13.8%
  • 1-1
    13.5%
  • 0-0
    11.6%
  • 1-0
    9.8%
  • 0-2
    9.1%
  • 1-2
    8.3%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Iraq
WWDDWW
Norway
WWWWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 38%Possession62%
  • 2Shots5
  • 0On target2
  • 0Corners3
  • 7Fouls4
  • 1Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.