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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group G · Match 16

BelgiumvsEgypt

1 – 1Full time

Mon 15 Jun, 19:00 UTC your time · Mon 15 Jun, 12:00 GMT-7 at the venue

Lumen Field, Seattle, United States

Final result

full time
Belgium1 – 1Egypt

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Belgium
  • Mohamed HanyOG
Egypt
  • Emam Ashourgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
46.9% Belgium28.5% draw24.5% Egypt

Expected goals 1.36 – 0.90

Rating

What's driving this: Belgium have a moderate rating edge (+147 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Belgium46.9%draw28.5%Egypt24.5%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Belgium 1945.6 · Egypt 1798.2
    Belgium +147 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    Belgium #9 · Egypt #29
  • Recent form
    Belgium 4W-2D-0L · Egypt 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    13.8%
  • 1-1
    13.2%
  • 0-0
    10.8%
  • 2-0
    9.6%
  • 0-1
    9.0%
  • 2-1
    8.7%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Belgium
WDWDWW
Egypt
DLWWDW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 49%Possession51%
  • 8Shots10
  • 3On target1
  • 2Corners3
  • 5Fouls9
  • 0Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
1 Belgium0 draw3 Egypt

4 meetings · goals 4–7

  • 2022-11-18friendly1–2Egypt
  • 2018-06-06friendly3–0Belgium
  • 2005-02-09friendly0–4Egypt
  • 1999-03-30friendly0–1Egypt