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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group G · Match 15

IranvsNew Zealand

2 – 2Full time

Tue 16 Jun, 01:00 UTC your time · Mon 15 Jun, 18:00 GMT-7 at the venue

SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, United States

Final result

full time
Iran2 – 2New Zealand

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Iran
  • Mohammad Mohebigoal
  • Ramin Rezaeiangoal
New Zealand
  • Elijah Just2 goals

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
46.6% Iran26.3% draw27.1% New Zealand

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.10

Rating

What's driving this: Iran hold a decisive rating edge: +154 Elo over New Zealand.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Iran46.6%draw26.3%New Zealand27.1%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Iran 1876 · New Zealand 1721.8
    Iran +154 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Iran #21 · New Zealand #85
  • Recent form
    Iran 4W-1D-1L · New Zealand 6W-0D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    12.6%
  • 1-0
    10.7%
  • 2-1
    9.3%
  • 2-0
    8.4%
  • 0-0
    7.7%
  • 0-1
    7.6%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Iran
WLDWWW
New Zealand
WWWWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 48%Possession52%
  • 10Shots5
  • 2On target3
  • 4Corners0
  • 8Fouls4
  • 1Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
1 Iran1 draw0 New Zealand

2 meetings · goals 3–0

  • 2003-10-12friendly3–0Iran
  • 1973-08-12friendly0–0draw