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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group H · Match 14

SpainvsCape Verde

0 – 0Full time

Mon 15 Jun, 16:00 UTC your time · Mon 15 Jun, 12:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, United States

Final result

full time
Spain0 – 0Cape Verde

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
70.9% Spain19.8% draw9.3% Cape Verde

Expected goals 1.99 – 0.57

Rating

What's driving this: Spain hold a decisive rating edge: +522 Elo over Cape Verde.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Spain70.9%draw19.8%Cape Verde9.3%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Spain 2156.1 · Cape Verde 1633.9
    Spain +522 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Spain #2 · Cape Verde #69
  • Recent form
    Spain 5W-1D-0L · Cape Verde 5W-1D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 2-0
    15.3%
  • 1-0
    15.1%
  • 3-0
    10.2%
  • 1-1
    9.0%
  • 2-1
    8.7%
  • 0-0
    8.0%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Spain
DWWWWW
Cape Verde
WDWWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 78%Possession22%
  • 14Shots3
  • 3On target1
  • 7Corners1
  • 5Fouls0
  • 0Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.