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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group H · Match 13

Saudi ArabiavsUruguay

1 – 1Full time

Mon 15 Jun, 22:00 UTC your time · Mon 15 Jun, 18:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, United States

Final result

full time
Saudi Arabia1 – 1Uruguay

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Saudi Arabia
  • Abdulelah Al Amrigoal
Uruguay
  • Maxi Araújogoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
19.6% Saudi Arabia31.3% draw49.2% Uruguay

Expected goals 0.65 – 1.21

Rating

What's driving this: Uruguay hold a decisive rating edge: +265 Elo over Saudi Arabia.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Saudi Arabia19.6%draw31.3%Uruguay49.2%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Saudi Arabia 1681.2 · Uruguay 1946.5
    Uruguay +265 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Saudi Arabia #61 · Uruguay #17
  • Recent form
    Saudi Arabia 2W-2D-2L · Uruguay 2W-2D-2L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-1
    18.5%
  • 0-0
    16.0%
  • 1-1
    12.6%
  • 0-2
    11.4%
  • 1-0
    9.8%
  • 1-2
    7.4%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Saudi Arabia
DWLDLW
Uruguay
DWWLDL

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 25%Possession75%
  • 2Shots22
  • 0On target8
  • 0Corners12
  • 6Fouls1
  • 0Offsides3
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
1 Saudi Arabia1 draw1 Uruguay

3 meetings · goals 4–4

  • 2018-06-20wc finals0–1Uruguay
  • 2014-10-10friendly1–1draw
  • 2002-03-27friendly3–2Saudi Arabia