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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group F · Match 12

SwedenvsTunisia

5 – 1Full time

Mon 15 Jun, 02:00 UTC your time · Sun 14 Jun, 20:00 GMT-6 at the venue

Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe, Mexico

Final result

full time
Sweden5 – 1Tunisia

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Sweden
  • Yasin Ayari2 goals
  • Alexander Isakgoal
  • Mattias Svanberggoal
  • Viktor Gyökeresgoal
Tunisia
  • Omar Rekikgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
34.9% Sweden32.0% draw33.1% Tunisia

Expected goals 1.00 – 0.97

Even

What's driving this: The model rates these sides near-level, closer to a coin-flip.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Sweden34.9%draw32.0%Tunisia33.1%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Sweden 1745.4 · Tunisia 1728.6
    Sweden +17 · negligible
  • FIFA ranking
    Sweden #38 · Tunisia #44
  • Recent form
    Sweden 2W-1D-3L · Tunisia 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-0
    14.4%
  • 1-1
    14.0%
  • 1-0
    13.6%
  • 0-1
    13.1%
  • 2-0
    7.0%
  • 2-1
    6.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Sweden
WWDLLL
Tunisia
DDLWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 43%Possession57%
  • 8Shots3
  • 4On target1
  • 2Corners2
  • 6Fouls5
  • 3Offsides4
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
2 Sweden1 draw1 Tunisia

4 meetings · goals 3–2

  • 2003-02-12friendly0–1Tunisia
  • 1999-02-10friendly1–0Sweden
  • 1992-04-22friendly1–0Sweden
  • 1976-02-28friendly1–1draw