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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group F · Match 11

NetherlandsvsJapan

2 – 2Full time

Sun 14 Jun, 20:00 UTC your time · Sun 14 Jun, 15:00 GMT-5 at the venue

AT&T Stadium, Arlington, United States

Final result

full time
Netherlands2 – 2Japan

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Netherlands
  • Crysencio Summervillegoal
  • Virgil van Dijkgoal
Japan
  • Daichi Kamadagoal
  • Keito Nakamuragoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
39.0% Netherlands25.9% draw35.1% Japan

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.36

Rating

What's driving this: Netherlands have a slight rating edge (+37 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Netherlands39.0%draw25.9%Japan35.1%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Netherlands 1986.5 · Japan 1949.2
    Netherlands +37 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    Netherlands #7 · Japan #18
  • Recent form
    Netherlands 4W-2D-0L · Japan 4W-1D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    12.3%
  • 2-1
    8.6%
  • 1-0
    8.3%
  • 1-2
    8.1%
  • 0-1
    7.8%
  • 0-0
    6.4%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Netherlands
WDWWWD
Japan
WLDWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 48%Possession52%
  • 6Shots7
  • 4On target3
  • 2Corners3
  • 4Fouls4
  • 1Offsides0
  • 3Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
2 Netherlands1 draw0 Japan

3 meetings · goals 6–2

  • 2013-11-16friendly2–2draw
  • 2010-06-19wc finals1–0Netherlands
  • 2009-09-05friendly3–0Netherlands