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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
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Group stage · Group E · Match 10

GermanyvsCuraçao

7 – 1Full time

Sun 14 Jun, 17:00 UTC your time · Sun 14 Jun, 12:00 GMT-5 at the venue

NRG Stadium, Houston, United States

Final result

full time
Germany7 – 1Curaçao

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Germany
  • Kai Havertz2 goals
  • Deniz Undavgoal
  • Felix Nmechagoal
  • Jamal Musialagoal
  • Nathaniel Browngoal
  • Nico Schlotterbeckgoal
Curaçao
  • Livano Comenenciagoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
68.6% Germany18.6% draw12.8% Curaçao

Expected goals 2.28 – 0.88

Rating

What's driving this: Germany hold a decisive rating edge: +410 Elo over Curaçao.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Germany68.6%draw18.6%Curaçao12.8%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Germany 1977.2 · Curaçao 1566.8
    Germany +410 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Germany #10 · Curaçao #82
  • Recent form
    Germany 5W-0D-1L · Curaçao 3W-3D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 2-0
    11.0%
  • 2-1
    9.7%
  • 1-0
    9.3%
  • 1-1
    8.8%
  • 3-0
    8.3%
  • 3-1
    7.4%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Germany
WWWWWL
Curaçao
DWDWWD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 60%Possession40%
  • 10Shots4
  • 6On target0
  • 2Corners1
  • 11Fouls6
  • 0Offsides1
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.