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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group C · Match 7

BrazilvsMorocco

1 – 1Full time

Sat 13 Jun, 22:00 UTC your time · Sat 13 Jun, 18:00 GMT-4 at the venue

MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, United States

Final result

full time
Brazil1 – 1Morocco

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Brazil
  • Vinícius Júniorgoal
Morocco
  • Ismael Saibarigoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
41.3% Brazil31.2% draw27.5% Morocco

Expected goals 1.14 – 0.87

Rating

What's driving this: Brazil have a moderate rating edge (+98 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Brazil41.3%draw31.2%Morocco27.5%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Brazil 2046.2 · Morocco 1948.7
    Brazil +98 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    Brazil #6 · Morocco #8
  • Recent form
    Brazil 3W-1D-2L · Morocco 4W-2D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    14.8%
  • 0-0
    13.8%
  • 1-1
    13.7%
  • 0-1
    11.3%
  • 2-0
    8.7%
  • 2-1
    7.6%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Brazil
LWWDLW
Morocco
WDWWWD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 49%Possession51%
  • 6Shots2
  • 3On target1
  • 4Corners2
  • 8Fouls6
  • 0Offsides1
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
2 Brazil0 draw1 Morocco

3 meetings · goals 6–2

  • 2023-03-25friendly1–2Morocco
  • 1998-06-16wc finals3–0Brazil
  • 1997-10-09friendly2–0Brazil