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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group D · Match 6

AustraliavsTurkey

2 – 0Full time

Sun 14 Jun, 04:00 UTC your time · Sat 13 Jun, 21:00 GMT-7 at the venue

BC Place, Vancouver, Canada

Final result

full time
Australia2 – 0Turkey

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Australia
  • Connor Metcalfegoal
  • Nestory Irankundagoal
Turkey

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
38.8% Australia27.2% draw34.0% Turkey

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.24

Rating

What's driving this: Turkey have a slight rating edge (+28 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Australia38.8%draw27.2%Turkey34.0%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Australia 1858.4 · Turkey 1886.3
    Turkey +28 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    Australia #27 · Turkey #22
  • Recent form
    Australia 4W-2D-0L · Turkey 5W-1D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.0%
  • 1-0
    9.7%
  • 0-1
    8.9%
  • 2-1
    8.5%
  • 0-0
    7.9%
  • 1-2
    7.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Australia
WWWWDD
Turkey
WWDWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 26%Possession74%
  • 5Shots20
  • 2On target6
  • 3Corners6
  • 7Fouls3
  • 1Offsides2
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Australia0 draw2 Turkey

2 meetings · goals 1–4

  • 2004-05-24friendly0–1Turkey
  • 2004-05-21friendly1–3Turkey