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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group C · Match 5

HaitivsScotland

0 – 1Full time

Sun 14 Jun, 01:00 UTC your time · Sat 13 Jun, 21:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, United States

Final result

full time
Haiti0 – 1Scotland

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Haiti

none

Scotland
  • John McGinngoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
31.5% Haiti26.3% draw42.1% Scotland

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.47

Rating

What's driving this: Scotland have a moderate rating edge (+118 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Haiti31.5%draw26.3%Scotland42.1%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Haiti 1654.5 · Scotland 1772.6
    Scotland +118 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    Haiti #83 · Scotland #43
  • Recent form
    Haiti 3W-2D-1L · Scotland 4W-1D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    12.5%
  • 0-1
    9.4%
  • 1-2
    8.9%
  • 1-0
    7.9%
  • 2-1
    7.5%
  • 0-2
    7.2%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Haiti
WWLWDD
Scotland
WLWWWD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 64%Possession36%
  • 7Shots2
  • 1On target0
  • 4Corners3
  • 10Fouls12
  • 0Offsides1
  • 0Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.