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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group A · Match 2

South KoreavsCzech Republic

2 – 1Full time

Fri 12 Jun, 02:00 UTC your time · Thu 11 Jun, 20:00 GMT-6 at the venue

Estadio Akron, Zapopan, Mexico

Final result

full time
South Korea2 – 1Czech Republic

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
South Korea
  • Hyun-Gyu Ohgoal
  • In-Beom Hwanggoal
Czech Republic
  • Ladislav Krejcígoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
40.6% South Korea32.3% draw27.1% Czech Republic

Expected goals 1.08 – 0.82

Rating

What's driving this: South Korea have a moderate rating edge (+112 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
South Korea40.6%draw32.3%Czech Republic27.1%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    South Korea 1871.9 · Czech Republic 1760.2
    South Korea +112 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    South Korea #25 · Czech Republic #41
  • Altitude
    concede ~1.6 km in Zapopan
    -0.26 goal rate
  • Recent form
    South Korea 3W-3D-0L · Czech Republic 2W-3D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    15.7%
  • 0-0
    15.4%
  • 1-1
    13.7%
  • 0-1
    11.9%
  • 2-0
    8.7%
  • 2-1
    7.1%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
South Korea
WWDDDW
Czech Republic
DDWLDW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 68%Possession32%
  • 7Shots5
  • 5On target4
  • 1Corners2
  • 5Fouls9
  • 0Offsides1
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
1 South Korea1 draw1 Czech Republic

3 meetings · goals 4–8

  • 2016-06-05friendly2–1South Korea
  • 2001-08-15friendly0–5Czech Republic
  • 1998-05-27friendly2–2draw