Each point is a model forecast published during the tournament, conditioned on every result completed at that time; the line connects successive published forecasts (recalcs ran in batches, so some matches share a segment).

1. 1SpainChampions=Finished where the model ranked it, among these eight10.9%
2. 2ArgentinaRunners-up=Finished where the model ranked it, among these eight9.6%
3. 3BrazilRound of 16▼22 places worse than the model's rank, among these eight7.0%
4. 4FranceFourth place=Finished where the model ranked it, among these eight6.6%
5. 5EnglandThird place▲22 places better than the model's rank, among these eight5.4%
6. 6PortugalRound of 16▲11 place better than the model's rank, among these eight4.2%
7. 7GermanyRound of 32=Finished where the model ranked it, among these eight4.1%
8. 8NetherlandsRound of 32▲11 place better than the model's rank, among these eight4.0%

The model's pre-tournament champion odds (before a ball was kicked) against where each side actually finished. Ordered by that pre-tournament number; the green/red chip is how many places better or worse a side finished than the model ranked it, among these eight.

• 1Kylian Mbappé10 / 2.6 exp
• 2Lionel Messi8 / 2.4 exp
• 3Jude Bellingham7 / - exp
• 4Erling Haaland7 / 2.6 exp
• 5Ousmane Dembélé6 / - exp

1. 1rank 1Ahmad Hassan141 / 172 pts
2. 2rank 2Presaira modelSpainBenchmark138 / 172 pts
3. 3rank 3Seif Tamer116 / 172 pts
4. 4rank 4M7mdEhab113 / 172 pts
5. 5rank 5Mohammed Tarik98 / 172 pts

Round-weighted points vs the actual bracket. Full comparison →